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Luis Palau
Syria’s War Plans Against Israel
DEBKAfile reports that it looks like Syria’s intentions for a Summer war against Israel has been delayed until November. Olmert first tipped this off when he commented this past Tuesday (7/31) that he believed this Summer and Fall would be less “hot” than expected. According to military sources this evaluation reached Jerusalem via Washington last week.
The belief is that the scope of the initial thrust will be to test Israel’s military response to a series of cross-border raids. According to DEBKA, President Assad and his inner circle (including his brother-in-law) have designed this plan and it hasn’t been widely disseminated throughout Syrian offices. Of course Syria has denied any intentions of going to war against Israel. I sure hope Olmert’s administration is up to this challenge, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in this particular crowd.
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7 Responses to “Syria’s War Plans Against Israel”
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do you think this is a similar setting to what happened between america and the former soviet union during the jfk administration? from what i have read, the brinksmanship was pretty “hot”, but fortunately the missles in cuba were turned away. i would like to beleive that the middle east is the new cruicible for brinksmanship and not the powder keg for wwIII. some might say i am a naieve gen-xer and i am ok with that until the middleastern leaders prove me wrong.
however, i know some in washington will lean toward diplomacy and others on the side of drones, stealth bombers and the big boats docked in the mediterrean sea. my first desire is diplomacy, but from my perspective, the current war on terror we are in might morph into something further with broader objectives. do you think that the latest news of the day out of the middle east will be used in such a way to further those in washington who want to use the miliarty to silence the drama?
once again alot of questins with few good answers until the leaders act or back down…
Matt…….I wrote a long explanation of my view on this point and posted my comment. Then I inadvertantly deleted it while I thought I was on the LC comment. So….in short this time. I don’t see the parallel of the US/USSR situation in this case. The US and USSR operated under the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). I don’t think the radical and fundamental Islamic regimes are moved by this commensurate threat at all. I think they are sort of a “game on” end times type of guys.
It is for the same reason I believe that diplomacy and negotiations (though the preferred course) is doomed to failure. They only negotiate to get out of a mess, not to avoid one. Their actions of the past tell me that we don’t need to divine their intentions, but merely listen to what they tell us and what they continually act on………steve
Olmert has been a great disappointment on the military front, liberals usually are. It’s just a reality that Israel doesn’t have the luxury of making too many mistakes. Perhaps Olmert has adjusted his thinking since his last disgraceful performance. No matter, ready or not the Syrians are coming.
LC
LC………I agree about the Olmert regime. I think his vacillation last summer is largely attributable to the risk of war this summer. There handling of last years incursion was not on the order of previous Israeli performance. I found it a very stressful time because as the engagement unfolded you could actually feel the vacillation and it caused me many groans on a real time basis. The outcome was therefore no surprise and as usual it has emboldened the group of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah to reach further this time. Of course the UN has not been helpful at all since then to impose the discipline of the cease fire. Given all this, I expect that when November comes (or whenever) that for some reason the world will be complaining about Israel throughout it, especially if they do what is necessary to protect themselves and win………..steve
lc, this is no disrespect, but i had some questions that i would like to ask in response for clarity in your post above.
help me to understand the link between disappointment on military fronts and the liberal ideology. i am not trying to pick an arguement, but wonder what gray matter might be involved in what appears to you and maybe other readers to be a black and white issue.
as far as the luxury of making mistakes, i think that the world knows that isreal’s big brother will not permit isreal to be bullied. we would step in (diplomatically at first) before things got messy i believe. also, when you speak of making mistakes, are you refering to isreal’s place in history, their population wrt their neighbors, their religious ideology or geopolitical proximity to multiple enemies. maybe it is a hodgepodge of all things listed, but i think that isreal does an aggressive job of defending themselves.
maybe, the syrians are like the myrianete (sp?) puppet in the hands of a huge opec member that enjoys stirring up drama. my belief is that syria is on a leash and funded by some opec memebers who like to distract, poke at and try political games with america.
Matt……..I don’t want to speak for LC, but in your question here: “help me to understand the link between disappointment on military fronts and the liberal ideology” I think he is merely referencing the perspective that feels that the liberals in leadership in Israel are less inclined to act as strongly and decisively as the conservatives in Israel (as in the past) and hence this can provoke a dangerous situation since it first encourages adventurism by the Iranian and Syrians and then enables them to hurt the Jewish state more because of the inclination to talk too long when the enemy has seriously harmful intentions for you. ……steve
Hi Matt
When we look at a map of the middle east we can see that Israel occupies only a mere fraction of the area yet it’s a fact of life that they will always have to defend their nation from it’s neighbors.
They have a magnificent military and in the past under conservative leadership weren’t afraid to use it. As a result, considering the overwhelming odds they enjoyed decisive victories. By middle east standards they have on the most part enjoyed peace.
Last year they lost a war. The whole world was surprised but no one more than the Arabs. The indecisiveness of the liberal Olmert is clearly the reason they now find themselves in a more dangerous situation.
As far as the part Syria is playing, there is no doubt Iran is pulling their strings.
Steve hit the mark when he said, “liberals in leadership in Israel are less inclined to act as strongly and decisively as the conservatives in Israel” History proves this to be true.
LC
LC………check, check and check…….steve
[…] Syria and Israel, which would engulf the whole Middle East and involve both the US and Iran. Syria’s War Plans Against Israel DEBKAfile reports that it looks like Syria’s intentions for a Summer war against Israel has been […]
[…] DEBKAfile reports that it looks like Syria’s intentions for a Summer war against Israel has been delayed until November. Olmert first tipped this off when he commented this past Tuesday (7/31) that he believed this Summer and Fall would … …more […]
i think that the middle east WILL be the fuse for WWIII, it continues to burn and its getting close. however, until russia move in and start being more open about their alliances with iran and syria, the ‘young guns’ aren’t going to be gutsy enough to stand up against israel, U.S. and Britain. its fairly obvious that these three are very strongly allied and india is moving into this tie too with its new barak missile plans with israel, and their new planes coming in too.
russia and the US are continually having diplomatic problems, russia claims a large amount of the north pole and the US say its not legitimate.. it is against the UN law and russia don’t really care. they’re seriously powerful and it was seen mainly with georgia when their oil got turned off. but if you look, the whole thing is built around oil. iraq and greece i believe are both looking towards russia for oil. the more people rely on russia for resources, the more powerful russia will be. they are in the process of building their 5th generation fighter jet and their space defence system.. these two along with their new ground missile technologies will make them a perfect ‘daddy’ for iran and syria. a report from the RIA i believe?? says why russia should sell weapons to iran and syria.. it includes both finanial and allied benefits. this, along with my religious beliefs is why i think russia will be behind them all the way.
tobias…….there isn’t much here to dispute at all. This is a sober and well thought out view of the area and situation. I’d only add that I believe that the fuse of WWIII has already begun and though it is out of that area, it has a different complexion than the traditional East/West dichotomy. I believe the initiative for what I feel is WWIII is the internecine conflict of the Arabs as the radical fundamentalist seek to install their theocracy throughout the Middle East deposing the existing Kingdoms and “democracies”
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Sure they point to the “Palestinian” cause in their drum beats, but I believe that is part of the call to arms process where the bigger goal is the consolidation of the Islamic caliphate, but I also believe that as usual even between the radical fundamentalists Muslims there will ultimately be a breakdown and they will turn on each other according to their flavor of radicalism.
Don’t know what to do about Russia. They are a meddlesome bunch. I think we have given them too much. Seems that everything we do together the US seems to end up paying for. They must take us to be a bunch of weak losers. To bad Ronnies isn’t around these days. ……..steve