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Forecasters Cut 2007 Hurricane Forecast
We had a couple of years of increased Hurricane activity. Last year we had a prediction of another year of strong hurricane activity………..Not. This year we had more predictions of increased activity and already forecasters are standing down on that claim because of (get this) cooler than anticipated Atlantic Ocean waters. Increased Hurricane activity has been one of the lead pipe cinch arguments tendered by Al Gore and his sympathizers for proof of Global Warming. Does it mean that if we have reduced activity in this area we have evidence of Global Cooling?
Global Warming or not, I am finding increasingly humorous the direction that the debate has turned with Politically Correct arguments. For further information on this turn of events in Hurricane forecasting read the REUTERS article “Forecaster cuts 2007 Hurricane Outlook” I am actually pretty happy about this since we are headed back to South Florida in late September.
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9 Responses to “Forecasters Cut 2007 Hurricane Forecast”
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[…] Clark Link to Article al gore Forecasters Cut 2007 Hurricane Forecast » Posted at Next Stop […]
Can’t wait to visit… Marcello’s La Sirena here we come!
M2……..never been there but they have a great review in the Zagat Survey of Palm Beach Restaurants-2007. Might have to give it a try this season. ……steve
You must. Northern Italian (literally my favorite food)… & really really good.
Back to the Hooey.
I’m waiting with bated breath to see how this all shakes out in the next few years. Proceed with caution (on all fronts) is definitely the best advice IMO.
M2………I’m taking a stand and am prepared to go down with the ship or celebrate victory……….steve
Hahahahahaha out loud…
The king of the world says yer stompin on Gaia.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s new movie “The 11th Hour.”
http://movies.clevver.com/video/22056/the-11th-hour-trailer-1.php
all
as a scientist, i think it is a huge delusion of grandeur and mighty antropocentric to try to predict weather. also, there are not many studies which convincingly show overwhelming data between global warming and hurricane cycles. i think that shooting craps might just show as much reliable data as trying to use scientific data to predict hurricane seasons in the future.
the only industry outside of fema that might care is the actuarial representatives of insurance carriers. they have more to loose than the climatologists who will still have jobs regardless of their accuracy.
just like a maxim in the stock market “past performance is not a reliable indicator for future results”, this could be applied in meterology and climatology.
all that to say, the lack of a hurricane season does not give credibility for or against global warming as steve suggested. it is true that the globe on a whole is increasing in temperature. glaciers (or the lack of) are peices of evidence.
i look forward to the day when people can agree to practice conservation, effecient and pragmatic resource allocation, as well as discussing appreciation of ecosystems.
in my opinion, the real issue that needs to be discussed is what will happen to our fresh water supplies? water, though abundant, will be a commodity that needs to be used appropriately. as an example, some central ohio businesses are running their lawn sprinklers depsite present downpours. this to me is a travesty. are green lawns really that important?
Matt……….Actually I think all these environmental problems boil down to one issue. Over population. That is what will task the system, i.e. water and all. But I don’t support abortion on moral grounds and you can’t go around telling people how many babies to have so we have a problem unless we want to become like China. Much of the rest of it is a smoke screen. You can’t burn less oil with more people. So the real problem to be solved is pursuading more family planning of the people that reproduce like rabbits. But if there is blame that must go around it should probably go in that direction first………steve
Too bad. More hurricanes = better waves = more fun surfing.
That all said, I love it when people use predictions to determine whether or not something has happened. That’s like saying, “I predict that the economy will hit an all-time high; therefore, Bush has done a good job.” Why can’t we wait for something to happen?
Don’t get me started on “higher than average,” either. There’s statistical significance to consider. If we had 50 hurricane seasons in a row with exactly 9 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes each, that would be freaky as hell. The question is not whether the last few seasons have fallen on the right-hand side or the left-hand side of the bell curve; it is how many standard deviations away from the norm they are, and whether or not there is enough data to determine a trend.
The 2005 hurricane season was insane. We went into Greek letters for the first time ever. Nevertheless, 2006 was average and 2007 is looking to be boring. So who cares?
Bridget………Who Cares? Us costal people. Actually not worried at all……..steve
You ever suspect the left has been wishing for another bad hurricane season so they can tote global warming and blame Bush?
Too bad lefties.
Tammi………..of course, just like their vesting in “we lost the war in Iraq.”……….steve
Well, my sister is/was one of them. She fled during 2005 to move up North, away from the hurricanes. Anyway, she was supposed to stop off at my place in VA on the way. She left the following message on my voicemail:
“It’s me. Can’t talk for long because my phone is running out of batteries and the power went out. The dog & I are packing in the dark. Yeah, there’s a hurricane coming through: her name’s Katrina and she’s a b&%$^.”
Bridget………..” and she’s a b&%$^” How prophetic………steve